The 14-Vote Gap: Predicting the Chapin-Tanna Runoff with PolyDavid
- J & Washington Editorial
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
Why traditional polling fails in razor-thin local races—and how our new predictive engine changes the game.
By J & Washington Team
The dust has settled on the November general election, but the battle for Orlando City Council District 3 is far from over. In a contest decided by a margin thinner than a Florida ballot paper—just 14 votes separated Roger Chapin (2,479) and Mira Tanna (2,465)—District 3 is heading to a high-stakes Runoff on December 9, 2025.
This isn’t just a choice between two candidates; it’s a clash of political archetypes. In one corner, Roger Chapin, the experienced civic leader with deep establishment backing (Mayor Buddy Dyer, Police/Fire Unions) and a "govern from the middle" philosophy. In the other, Mira Tanna, the City Grants Manager and transit advocate riding a wave of progressive grassroots energy (Congressman Maxwell Frost, FL Representative Anna Eskamani, Sierra Club) and door-knocking hustle.
In a race this tight, where a rainstorm on election day could flip the result, traditional polling is effectively blind. A sample size of 300 voters can’t capture the nuance of a 14-vote swing.
Enter PolyDavid.
J & Washington, in collaboration with the T8020 Community, is proud to preview the future rollout of PolyDavid—our proprietary predictive market engine designed specifically for the granular chaos of local politics. Unlike static polls that ask "Who do you like?", PolyDavid analyzes win probability by weighing hard data (fundraising, past turnout) against subjective "hustle" metrics (door knocks per hour, digital engagement).
To demonstrate the power of this model, we are simulating 6 Prediction Markets for the December 9 Runoff. These aren't just guesses; they are data-driven "wagers" that allow you to test your political instincts against our algorithm.
The District 3 Wager Markets (Simulation)
1. The "Razor’s Edge" Margin of Victory The General Election gap was 0.19%. Will the Runoff be a blowout or a nail-biter?
Tier A (The Mandate): Winner leads by >500 votes (>7%).
Tier B (The Comfortable Win): Winner leads by 150–499 votes.
Tier C (The Recount Zone): Winner leads by <150 votes.
2. The Turnout Over/Under Runoffs historically see a drop in voter participation. With national eyes on this seat, will District 3 buck the trend?
Market: Will Total Votes Cast exceed 4,000? (General Election saw ~7,200).
Wager: OVER / UNDER.
3. The "Establishment vs. Grassroots" Spread Chapin has the fundraising advantage; Tanna has the volunteer armies. This wager tracks the efficiency of dollars vs. doors.
Market: Will Roger Chapin’s vote share exceed 51.5%?
Context: PolyDavid models typically favor "Money" (Fundraising) early, but "Strategy" (Ground Game) late.
4. The "Progressive Kingmaker" Prop Mira Tanna is endorsed by Rep. Maxwell Frost. This market measures the weight of endorsements in key progressive neighborhoods.
Market: Will Tanna win the Audubon Park precinct by a margin greater than 10%?
5. The "Transit" Bump Tanna focuses on transit; Chapin focuses on Main Streets (Ivanhoe/Edgewater). This wager tracks the "urbanist" vote.
Market: Will the winner carry the downtown-adjacent corridors (College Park) by more than 200 votes?
6. The Ultimate Outcome Simple, direct, and high-stakes.
Market: Who will be the next Commissioner of District 3?
Roger Chapin (Implied Probability: 50.1%)
Mira Tanna (Implied Probability: 49.9%)
Comments